Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $422,140$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{468,466.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 129.4)}}\) (asimptote \(468,466.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,301$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,869.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 164.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,869.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,269$ on 2020-09-20

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $319,035$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{416,756.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 170.1)}}\) (asimptote \(416,756.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,555$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,549.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 142.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,549.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,889$ on 2020-09-20

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,475$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,675.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,675.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $846$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(33.1 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{925.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 127.4)}}\) (asimptote \(925.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,211$ on 2020-09-20

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,335$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,307.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 120.8)}}\) (asimptote \(44,307.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(90.9 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,226.9}{1 + 10^{-0.465 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,226.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,788$ on 2020-09-20

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $187,902$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,252,971.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 337.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,252,971.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,256$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(77.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.3\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,577$ on 2020-09-20

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $99,434$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,767.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 132.6)}}\) (asimptote \(98,767.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $584$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(103 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{541.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 73.7)}}\) (asimptote \(541.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,682$ on 2020-09-20

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,039$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{63,990.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.8)}}\) (asimptote \(63,990.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $221$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(8.65 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 120.1)}}\) (asimptote \(216.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,868$ on 2020-09-20

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $329,754$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{328,680.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 104.4)}}\) (asimptote \(328,680.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,485$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(335 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,571.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 111.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,571.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,830$ on 2020-09-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 98%
Kazakhstan recovered 89%
Vietnam recovered 81%
Sri Lanka recovered 80%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 79%
Azerbaijan recovered 79%
Saudi Arabia recovered 76%
Korea, South recovered 68%
Japan recovered 59%
Maldives recovered 48%
Bangladesh recovered 24%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,576$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,178.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 116.4)}}\) (asimptote \(55,178.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.76 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $368$ on 2020-09-20

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $107,307$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,914.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.1)}}\) (asimptote \(108,914.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,671$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(35.4 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,739.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,739.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,695$ on 2020-09-20

Vietnam⮸

Population $97,338,579$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,068$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.3\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-08-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(18.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 7.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91$ on 2020-09-20

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,287$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.35 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,167.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 83.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,167.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 9.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $186$ on 2020-09-20