Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $422,140$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(5.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{468,466.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 129.4)}}\) (asimptote \(468,466.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,301$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,869.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 164.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,869.9\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,269$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $319,035$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{416,756.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 170.1)}}\) (asimptote \(416,756.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,555$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,549.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 142.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,549.2\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $56,889$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,475$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,675.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,675.6\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $846$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(33.1 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{925.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 127.4)}}\) (asimptote \(925.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,211$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,335$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,307.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 120.8)}}\) (asimptote \(44,307.9\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(90.9 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,226.9}{1 + 10^{-0.465 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,226.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,788$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $187,902$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,252,971.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 337.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,252,971.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,256$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(77.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,577$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $99,434$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(6.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,767.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 132.6)}}\) (asimptote \(98,767.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $584$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(103 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{541.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 73.7)}}\) (asimptote \(541.0\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,682$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,039$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{63,990.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.8)}}\) (asimptote \(63,990.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $221$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(8.65 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 120.1)}}\) (asimptote \(216.0\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,868$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $329,754$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{328,680.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 104.4)}}\) (asimptote \(328,680.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,485$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(335 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,571.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 111.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,571.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,830$ on 2020-09-20